Get ready for a volatile 2009

Given the news headlines, you might assume that business has been uniformly weak for wholesaler-distributors.

But in reality, revenue growth is varying more among the 19 major wholesale distribution sectors than anytime in recent memory. Check out annual growth rates below during the first eight months of 2008, ranked from best to worst. (See the 2008 Wholesale Distribution Economic Reports for a definition of each sector.)

Three major factors influence whether a wholesaler-distributor is operating in a faster or slower growing industry:

• Higher commodity price inflation;
• Sales to customers that are exporting from the U.S.; and
• Limited direct or indirect exposure to residential housing.

So what will influence 2009's growth rate?

Tune in on November 13 for my 2009 Economic Forecast for Wholesale Distribution webcast. I’ll help you to understand today’s uncertain economy and get ready for 2009. I’ll also provide a specific, quantitative growth forecast for each of the 19 sectors listed above based on some proprietary econometric models that I've been developing.

This event is being underwritten in part by IBM Corporation and produced by Modern Distribution Management. An archived recording of the event will be available through the end of 2008 at http://www.mdm.com/2009forecast.

In the meantime, feel free to email me any questions about the current economic situation. I'll address them in a future post or during the webcast.