An Ugly Q4 for Wholesaler-Distributors
Data from the fourth quarter of 2008 is starting to trickle in – and the news is horrible.
As you all probably know from personal experience, the
Below are the latest data for year-over-year revenue growth at U.S. wholesaler-distributors in October and November. (Click to enlarge the chart.) In addition to the demand shock, revenues also got hit hard by the popping of the commodity price bubble.
These data are not seasonally adjusted and are not adjusted for price changes (inflation or deflation). The lack of adjustment makes it easier to compare with your own companies. Right now, the Wall Street Journal’s latest monthly survey of economists forecasts GDP to begin growing (on a quarter-over-quarter basis) by mid-2009. See Economists Are Divided on Best Mix of Stimulus from last Thursday.
Of course, the track record for this group of forecasters is not very encouraging. The average prediction for 2009 GDP growth in September 2008 was +1.9%, while January’s prediction for 2009 growth is -0.3% growth. Caveat lector.
Anyway, I’ll keep you updated on the economic trends for wholesaler-distributors throughout the year. Hopefully, we'll all start to feel better by 2010.
1 comments:
I can agree that 2008 was not a banner year for the IC/semiconductor wholesalers. Most of the people at the C level in our industry have said privately that their revenues /profits were down substantially. I believe that the consolidation of the EMS providers foretells the future. There will be 3-4 large CMs and a handful of specialty (sub $100M)CMs. The Telcos will be crushed by Chinese upstarts Huawei and ZTE
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