Highlights from the new 2009 Economic Reports
My 2009 Wholesale Distribution Economic Reports for each of the 19 major industry sectors are now available for download from NAW's Institute for Distribution Excellence. Here's a look at the 2008 numbers and some thoughts on the 2009 outlook. Total revenues of wholesale distributors grew by 8.4% to $4.5 trillion in 2008, marking another year of strong top-line performance. However, revenues increased by a more modest 0.5% after adjusting for inflation. Pembroke Consulting forecasts that (unadjusted) industry revenues will increase between 0.6% and 1.6% in 2009 as the recession and the decline in commodity prices hurts some of the largest sectors. Here are direct links to the five best-selling reports from last year: Growth varied widely between the 19 major sectors, each of which represents one of the 19 individual 2009 Reports that break the data into 112 sub-sectors. (Click the table below to enlarge it.) Note that the Census Bureau just did a major data revision going back to 2005, so this year's numbers may differ from previous reports. In the meantime, please feel free to email me if you have any questions about the reports.
Unfortunately, growth in many wholesale distribution sectors will be negative in 2009 as the U.S. economy suffers through its worst recession since at least 1981-1982. The consensus 2009 macro economic forecast calls for a deep recession lasting through mid-2009 with growth resuming only in late 2009 and early 2010. Our 2009 revenue forecasts for the wholesale distribution industry and its major sectors appear on page 5 of each report. The individual sector reports describe the sector-specific economic conditions and factors behind these quantitative forecasts.
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