Free 2009 Economic Forecast Report!

Good news!

IBM has kindly agreed to make my 2009 Economic Forecast for Wholesale Distribution report available as a free download. Just click the link below to get it. (Yes, you will have to register.)

The 2009 Economic Forecast
for Wholesale Distribution

Keep in mind that the overall economic outlook has darkened significantly since my report was released in November. Look at the projected 2009 GDP growth rate from the Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists, sorted by the month of the survey.

The average forecast swung from +1.9% to -0.3% between September 2008 and January 2009. As they say, economic predictions exist to make weather forecasts look accurate!

My forecasts for wholesale distribution have also come down, but the material in the report remains timely and relevant. Pay particular attention to my discussion of the credit crunch and my outlooks for key B2B markets in construction, manufacturing, and the retail supply chain. Feel free to email me with any questions.

BTW, IBM announced an upbeat outlook for 2009 based on its outsourcing and other services contracts. See IBM Bucks Tech Slump, Issues Rosy 2009 Outlook. At least someone is expecting a good year!

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An Ugly Q4 for Wholesaler-Distributors

Data from the fourth quarter of 2008 is starting to trickle in – and the news is horrible.

As you all probably know from personal experience, the U.S. economy dropped sharply beginning in September. The speed and depth of the decline surprised almost everyone – including me.

Below are the latest data for year-over-year revenue growth at U.S. wholesaler-distributors in October and November. (Click to enlarge the chart.) In addition to the demand shock, revenues also got hit hard by the popping of the commodity price bubble.

These data are not seasonally adjusted and are not adjusted for price changes (inflation or deflation). The lack of adjustment makes it easier to compare with your own companies. See the Wholesale Distribution Economic Reports for a definition of each sector.

Right now, the Wall Street Journal’s latest monthly survey of economists forecasts GDP to begin growing (on a quarter-over-quarter basis) by mid-2009. See Economists Are Divided on Best Mix of Stimulus from last Thursday.

Of course, the track record for this group of forecasters is not very encouraging. The average prediction for 2009 GDP growth in September 2008 was +1.9%, while January’s prediction for 2009 growth is -0.3% growth. Caveat lector.

Anyway, I’ll keep you updated on the economic trends for wholesaler-distributors throughout the year. Hopefully, we'll all start to feel better by 2010.

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